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The Black Swan: Second Edition The Impact of the Highly Improbable: With a new section: "On Robustness and Fragility"
The Black Swan: Second Edition The Impact of the Highly Improbable: With a new section: "On Robustness and Fragility"
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The Black Swan: Second Edition The Impact of the Highly Improbable
by Nassim Nicholas Taleb
"The most influential book of the past seventy-five years: a groundbreaking exploration of everything we know about what we don’t know..."
🎲 PROBABILITY THEORY | RISK MANAGEMENT | BEHAVIORAL ECONOMICS
A landmark text exploring the devastating impact of unpredictable outliers and the flaws in human forecasting.
Extended Synopsis
In this revelatory classic, Nassim Nicholas Taleb dissects the phenomenon of the "Black Swan"—a highly improbable event characterized by its unpredictability, massive impact, and our human tendency to concoct retroactive explanations to make it appear predictable. From the rise of the internet to financial market crashes, Taleb argues that these outliers dictate the course of history far more than ordinary, expected events.
This updated Second Edition includes the profound new philosophical and empirical essay, "On Robustness and Fragility." Taleb provides readers with intellectual tools to stop fooling themselves into thinking they know more than they do, teaching how to navigate, survive, and even exploit a world dominated by Black Swans. Elegantly written with sharp wit, it completely shifts how one views risk and opportunity.
About the Author & Accolades
Nassim Nicholas Taleb is a brilliant polymath, former options trader, and risk analyst with a command of cognitive science, business, and probability.
A massive New York Times Bestseller and universally recognized as a foundational text in modern economic theory.
Product Tables: Black Swan Characteristics
| Trait | Definition |
|---|---|
| Unpredictability | Lies completely outside the realm of regular expectations. |
| Massive Impact | Carries an extreme, outsized effect on markets or society. |
| Retrospective Predictability | Human nature invents explanations post-event, falsely asserting it was preventable. |
Technical Specifications
| ISBN-13 | 9780812973815 |
| Format | Paperback (2nd Edition) |
| Publisher | Random House Publishing Group |
| Topics | Business Forecasting, Decision Making, Mathematics |
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